By Ori Martins
The Nigerian political spectrum has the Olympic rays of always producing notorious factors that usually threaten the peaceful conduct of general elections in the country.
And all the blames go to some desperate politicians who want desire victory at all costs and largely compromised national electoral umpires.
All of the nine presidential elections, including the February 25, 2023, were coloured in variegated forms of near chaos, shrouded in mysterious outcomes.
In 1979, the major problem was the composition of the three top parties – National Party of Nigeria ( NPN), Unity Party Nigeria (UPN) and the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) being complete resurrection of of the old order.
It was viewed that NPN was an offshoot of the Northern Peoples Congress, NPC, of the First Republic headed by then prime minister, Alhaji Tafawa Balewa. The same way UPN was said to be the reincarnation of First Republic’s Action Group, AG, with Chief Obafemi Awolowo as leader, and Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe’s NPP being the carbon copy of the National Council of Nigerian Citizens, NCNC, also of the First Republic which he led.
Therefore, the election, supervised by FEDECO, under the chairmanship of Chief Michael Ani, was conducted along tribal and religious interests rather than toeing the line of merit, capacity and experience which posted a huge problem as old wounds were reopened and never balmed.
The 1979 presidential election suffered many setbacks. There were two big shots from the south – Zik and Awo – against one powerful actor from the north – Shagari, although PRP’s Aminu Kano and GNPP’s Wazirri Ibrahim were north based, they never had much influence beyond Kaduna and dissolved Gongola states.
It was easy for Shagari to coast home to victory, controversially, talking about the 2/3 of 19 states.
But the fact had been established: General Olusegun Obasanjo then head of state from the south, never handed power to either Zik or Awo, fellow southerners. That singular action, plus the death of Fela’s mother due to assault from soldiers, made Obasanjo a persena non grata in Yoruba nation.
Since the return of civil rule in 1999 to 2011, the single most uphill task facing the conduct of free and fair election was the alleged “insincerity of the national electoral body, INEC”. Many Nigerians believe that INEC officials have competence but lack discipline and integrity.
The Ephraim Akpata’s 1999 presidential election was not all that disputed because, from day one, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, seemed to have grown bigger than the other two parties: the All Peoples Party, APP, as well as the Alliance for Democracy, AD, whereupon the latter two formed an alliance to fight PDP that eventually won the presidential election and retired General Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as president.
In the same frame, Abel Guobadia’s INEC did not really conduct an improved election in 2003 as both the local and foreign observers, even the citizens of Nigeria, wrote off the entire exercise. It was alleged that the processes were not transparent, were not free and were not fair, either.
Most commentators agree that the 1983 presidential election with Justice Victor Ovie Whiskey as national chairman, and the Prof Maurice Iwu’s 2007 presidential election held on April 21 were the most controversial and the most criticized in the history of the country. Both elections were said to have been brazenly rigged by the respective incumbent governments.
Almost across the country, in 1983, the NPN was accused of masterfully manipulating the processes that aided the party to win most of the states hitherto held by the UPN, NPP, PRP and GNPP. It was both horrendous and horrific. The effect was the military intervention of December 31, 1983.
It was in the 2015 elections that Nigerians, for the first time, appeared to have agreed to having an electoral process that was essentially free, fair and peaceful, although there were pickets of crises. It was Prof Attahiru Jega’s introduction of card reader that did that magic and that was how the then ruling party, PDP, lost the national election.
The PDP had accused Jega of conspiring with newly formed APC in manipulating the 2015 elections via the card reader. On presidential election day, the card reader failed abysmally in the south but worked perfectly in the north.
It is the same manner APC, now the ruling party, pointed fingers at Yakubu, insisting his INEC is colluding with PDP on the new naira redesign policy against it.
Before the 2015 elections, all applauded Prof Humphrey Nwosu’s National Electoral Commission, NEC, management and supervision of the 1993 presidential election. That election which introduced what was called “Option A4” produced miracles and wonders as it was generally regarded as “the freest and fairest” election in Nigeria’s political history.
As it turned out to be, that election was annulled. Before the annulment, the candidate of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, Chief MKO Abiola, was rumoured to have won the election ahead of his National Republican Convention, NRC, counterpart, Alhaji Bashir Tofa.
And now, the 2023 presidential elections. Even with acclaimed improved electorial devices like the BVAS and electronic transition of results, the election cannot be said to have been well conducted.
More than 30 hours after the February 25 presidential and national assembly elections, only one state’s result has been officially announced. This is too poor but INEC has given genuine reasons about this.
Again, look at this scenario. Has any northerner handed over to any northerner in any of the previous presidential elections? No! But the PDP and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar say it is possible.
The PDP thought that its presidential ticket belonged to two zones that have never ruled Nigeria since 1966 – South East or North East. Eventually, the latter picked the ticket, expecting the miracle of a northerner handing back the presidency over to a northerner. The reasons for this are very sensible and palatable. But, can they break this jinx? To them, with Turakai Adamawa as its standard bearer, it is possible.
Also, none of the parties with same faith ticket has ever won any presidential election. It didn’t work out with Awo’s UPN, a Christian who chose a fellow southern Christian, Philip Umeadi, in 1979. At the same time, in 1993, Abiola, running for president on the platform of SDP, picked a fellow Muslim, Ahhaji Babagana Kingibe, was presumed to have won the polls but he was never declared the winner.
And in 2023, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC are informing Nigerians that they were poised to shatter this glass ceiling, and so, Tinubu chose a fellow Muslim, Shettima, as his running mate. APC and Tinubu face a monster. The Nigerian Christians have shouted blue murder and the Christians in the north say they will never live to see it. Is it possible for them to go through?
By the way, all the three top politicians who have ran presidential elections employing same faith tickets are Yoruba to wit: Awo, MKO and now BAT. The first two failed. Will the third make it?
Remarkably, no South Easterner, the least in population and landmass among the three biggest tribes in Nigeria, and the least zone among the six geo political zones, has ever been elected president. Zik failed in 1979 and 1983. Dr Alex Ekwueme couldn’t pick the PDP presidential ticket in 1999 and 2003. Both Zik and Ekwueme were excellent politicians of repute. Well respected and reverted but they never got it.
Courageously and inspiringly, the Labour Party, LP, and Peter Obi are optimistic they could navigate against the tide and survive. LP and Obi are optimistic they will produce the first ever Igbo executive president of Nigeria, no matter what it takes, with the least polling units in South East, with the least number of registered voters in the South East and now with high rate of insecurity in the region. Is it possible? Very tough indeed but nothing can stop the dream of a prepared visionary, LP says.
Meanwhile, the other factors that almost shattered the 2023 general elections include insecurity, fuel scarcity, naira redesign policy, late arrival of electorial materials and attacks on election materials by thugs.
The most outstanding facts of this election is that it is the most tension soaked, most followed, most discussed and the one with the most in youths participation. It is also the most registered for.
One big puzzle. Why is that no South West ward has ever been appointed the national chairman of any national election commission eg FEC 1960 – 66, FEDECO 1979- 83, NEC 1986 -1993, NECO 1995-98, and INEC 1998 – ?
